"Lung cancer rates soaring for women after tobacco manufacturers
target them by saying smoking helps you stay slim," the Daily Mail
claims.
Elsewhere, BBC News reports that over the next 30 years the number of
women with lung cancer is set to rise significantly faster than the
number of men with lung cancer.
Where does the news come from?
The news stories come from a study of projected trends in cancer
rates and cancer survival overall that was originally published online
in the British Journal of Cancer in August 2012.
The study, conducted by researchers at King’s College London and
University College London, was funded by the charity Macmillan Cancer
Support. It used existing information about trends in cancer rates and
cancer survival in England to build a UK computer model to predict how
these numbers will change over the next three decades.
The research looked at breast, lung, bowel and prostate cancer, and
all cancers combined. Overall, the study authors predicted that the
total number of cancer survivors in the UK could increase from 2.1
million in 2010 to 5.3 million by 2040.
The study has been the subject of previous publicity by Macmillan and has twice appeared in the news, with warnings about a 'breast cancer timebomb' and a 'tripling in cancer cases in the over 65s'.
The lung cancer figures were highlighted this week in a press release
from Macmillan, which says that lung cancer is still a killer but that
research into the disease is not as well funded as other types of
cancer.
Macmillan highlights the fact that lung cancer receives a quarter of
the research funding compared to breast cancer, even though lung cancer
kills more than 13,000 women a year in England and Wales.
What does the report say about lung cancer?
The study predicts that lung cancer cases will double from 65,000 in 2010 to 137,000 in 2040.
The number of women with lung cancer in the UK is set to quadruple
within the next 30 years, from around 26,000 in 2010 to about 95,000 in
2040. In contrast, lung cancer rates in men are predicted to increase by
8%, from 39,000 in 2010 to 42,000 in 2040.
The model used in the research is based on the assumption that
current trends in lung cancer will remain the same, but this may not be
the case.
However, this study does reinforce the importance of long-term
planning in order to anticipate the health needs of an increasing ageing
population.
What could explain the projected trends?
As is the case with cancer generally, the projected increase in lung
cancer rates is largely due to an ageing population, say the
researchers.
Lung cancer is more common in older people, probably because they
have been smoking for longer than younger smokers and the longer you
smoke, the higher your risk of lung cancer.
The difference in projected rates among men and women is thought to
reflect the difference in smoking rates between the sexes in the past.
It is well-established that smoking is the main cause of lung cancer and
that current lung cancer rates generally reflect smoking rates among
the population 20 to 30 years earlier. The report does not cover this
point in detail, but it does point out that male lung cancer incidence
rates in England have declined, mainly because the number of men who
smoke has reduced since the 1970s.
Other research has found that lung cancer incidence rates in men
peaked in the 1970s and have decreased by more than 45% since then,
reflecting the decline in smoking rates among men after World War II.
However, from the mid 1970s to the late 1980s lung cancer rates among
women increased by around 45%, probably reflecting a later 'peak' in
smoking among women, although they are now increasing more slowly.
What evidence is there that tobacco companies marketed cigarettes to women as a slimming aid?
A report from the World Health Organisation (WHO) that
looked at the history of tobacco marketing to women globally found that
tobacco companies linked cigarettes to fashion and slimness as early as
1927.
The report quotes an advertisement from the time that encouraged
women to 'Light a Lucky [Lucky Strike] and you'll never miss sweets that
make you fat'.
In the 1960s and 70s women became a major target for the tobacco
industry. The launch of Virginia Slims by Philip Morris in 1968
deliberately targeted women by associating smoking with glamour,
thinness and independence. The WHO report points out that the tobacco
industry has used promotional campaigns, sponsorship and the internet to
market cigarettes to women. A recent article in the journal Tobacco
Control highlighted the emergence of pro-smoking smartphone apps.
In the UK tobacco advertising is illegal but this is not the case globally, particularly in countries in the developing world.
The WHO report highlights the fact that tobacco companies are now
aggressively targeting Asian women, quoting the cynical words of a
Bensons & Hedges marketing strategy that says that men 'represent
the cigarette world of yesterday, rather than the market of tomorrow'.
The possible influence – or not – of cigarette marketing upon smoking
rates in women is not addressed by the British Journal of Cancer study.
However, the Daily Mail should be congratulated for raising awareness
about the issue of tobacco marketing aimed at women, especially those
in the developing world.
Why has Macmillan focused on lung cancer?
Lung cancer is the leading cause of death from cancer in the UK.
CiarĂ¡n Devane, Macmillan's chief executive, says: "For most cancers in
the UK, we are looking at how we can cope with a population of long-term
survivors with health complications. With lung cancer we are a long way
from even being able to consider these issues."
He argues that lung cancer survival needs to improve, with more funding for research into the disease and its treatment.